Karen Joynt Maddox, MD, MPH, professor of medicine in the Cardiovascular Division and professor of public health at WashU’s Bursky School, is co-author of a new study examining how social drivers of health are expected to shape the future burden of cardiovascular disease in the United States through 2050. The research, published in JACC Advances, projects substantial increases in cardiovascular disease prevalence across all demographic groups, with persistent disparities linked to education, income and insurance status.
The study, Social Drivers of Health Advisory: Cardiovascular Disease Projections Through 2050, brought together a multidisciplinary team of investigators to evaluate future trends in cardiovascular risk factors and disease prevalence using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the U.S. Census. Researchers assessed how educational attainment, insurance coverage and income levels may influence cardiovascular health outcomes over the coming decades.
The investigators found that total cardiovascular disease prevalence is projected to increase across all education, insurance and income categories between 2020 and 2050. The analysis also showed that many cardiovascular risk factors and conditions are expected to remain most prevalent among individuals with lower educational attainment, lower incomes and public insurance coverage. Medicare beneficiaries, in particular, are projected to experience the highest overall prevalence of cardiovascular disease by 2050.
Joynt Maddox, whose research focuses on improving the quality, accessibility and affordability of health care through health policy and health services research, contributed expertise in health care delivery, population health and policy evaluation to the project. Her work frequently examines the ways federal and state policies influence health outcomes, particularly among older adults and other vulnerable populations.
The authors concluded that while cardiovascular disease is expected to increase nationwide, social drivers of health will continue to play a major role in determining who bears the greatest burden of disease. They emphasize that efforts to address social and economic factors affecting health should be prioritized to help mitigate the projected rise in cardiovascular disease over the next quarter-century.
The findings provide important insight for clinicians, researchers and policymakers seeking to improve cardiovascular health outcomes and advance health equity. The study highlights the need for strategies that extend beyond traditional medical care and address the broader social conditions that influence cardiovascular risk and disease.